{"id":2052,"date":"2025-10-28T10:47:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T09:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/showcase-preprod.neverhack.dev\/b\/?p=2052"},"modified":"2026-02-13T12:04:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T11:04:17","slug":"post-quantum-cryptography-pqc-current-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neverhack.com\/b\/en\/blog\/post-quantum-cryptography-pqc-current-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Post-Quantum chryptography (PQC): current Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In previous articles, we explored AI as a tactical weapon that is already reshaping attacks and Zero Trust as a strategic model for modern defence. Now, let’s address a threat that does not aim to infiltrate<\/em> our infrastructure, but to invalidate <\/em>the cryptographic foundations on which it is built.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts such as Gartner estimate that standard asymmetric encryption may not be secure by 2029 and could be completely broken by 2034. However, focusing on a specific date detracts attention from two much more pressing issues. Let’s take a look at what they are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Harvest Now<\/strong>, Decrypt Later<\/strong> (HDNL): The risk is not future; it is present. Adversaries are already intercepting and storing huge volumes of encrypted data. They cannot read them today, but they are patiently storing them, waiting for a quantum computer (or another breakthrough) to be able to decrypt them. If a datum (industrial, health, government secret) must remain secret for 10 years, it is already compromised today.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. The Complexity of Migration<\/strong>: The transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) is not a \u201cpatch day\u201d. It is perhaps the most complex infrastructural migration ever undertaken, a colossal undertaking involving the entire global IT infrastructure.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The real challenge: \u201chybrid\u201d architecture<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST<\/a><\/strong>) has already standardized its first set of PQC algorithms, such as CRYSTALS-Kyber (now ML-KEM) and CRYSTALS-Dilithium (now ML-DSA). The point, however, is not to \u201cswitch off\u201d RSA and \u201cswitch on\u201d PQC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For at least a decade, we will live in a \u201chybrid\u201d cryptographic world. Our systems will have to manage an uncomfortable coexistence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. Interoperability<\/strong>: systems upgraded to PQC will still need to communicate with billions of legacy devices (IoT, OT, embedded systems) that cannot be updated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Performance:<\/strong> The new PQC algorithms have different characteristics. Larger keys and heavier digital signatures can introduce latency. This is irrelevant for an email, but it is a huge problem for high-frequency payment systems or low-latency communications.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Key Management<\/strong>: The complexity of Key Management Systems (KMS) will explode, as they will have to manage the lifecycles of classical and quantum keys in parallel.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      PQC \u201cas\u201d a prerequisite for Zero Trust<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      As we have seen, the Zero Trust model is based on identity and continuous authentication. But what happens when the encryption that proves<\/em> that identity (digital certificates, signatures) is no longer reliable? The entire Zero Trust architecture collapses if the mathematics on which it is based fails.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      PQC is not a separate technological \u201csilo.\u201d It is the key prerequisite for ensuring that identity, access, and segmentation still have meaning in 2030. Quantum resilience is the natural evolution of \u201cCrypto-Agility<\/strong>\u201d that is, the ability to change cryptographic algorithms without having to redesign the entire architecture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      From inventory to action: a pragmatic approach<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      The question is no longer whether<\/em> to migrate, but how<\/em> to orchestrate this transition without disrupting business. The NSA roadmap (CNSA 2.0) sends a clear signal, recommending the start of adoption of quantum-resistant algorithms by 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1. Problem n.1<\/strong>: The Cryptographic Inventory<\/strong>. We cannot protect what we cannot see. The first real hurdle is mapping every single library, certificate, and hard-coded protocol in the infrastructure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      2. Quantify the risk<\/strong>. Management does not react to \u201cShor,\u201d it reacts to \u201cRisk.\u201d We need to map the data and then ask ourselves: \u201cWhat is the value of this data if it is made public in 7 years?\u201d This shifts the debate from the IT budget to the business continuity plan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      3. Test the Impact<\/strong>. Architectures must start testing PQC algorithms now<\/em>, in hybrid mode. Not (only) for security, but for performance<\/em>. Will your VPN handle the overhead? Will your mobile apps experience delays?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      4. Check the Supply Chain<\/strong>. It is essential to ask your cloud, software, and hardware suppliers about their PQC roadmap.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        The quantum transition has begun. It is not a future event, it is an engineering process that is already behind schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The path to post-quantum security: where are we now?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        The transition process towards post-quantum cryptography <\/strong>(PQC<\/strong>) is not only a technological issue, but also an organizational and strategic one. Every company is currently at a different point along this path, which we can ideally divide into three levels of maturity: Aware<\/strong>, Defined<\/strong>, and Managed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Level 1 \u201caware\u201d (awareness)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        In the first stage, the organization became aware of the threat posed by quantum computers, but has not yet taken any concrete action. This is the stage in which Top Management<\/strong> and Risk Management<\/strong> were formally informed about the PQC risk, including the issue of Harvest Now<\/strong>, Decrypt Later<\/strong> (HDNL<\/strong>) \u2014 i.e., the possibility that data encrypted today could be collected and decrypted in the future thanks to quantum computing capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        During this initial phase, internal discussions often focus on fundamental concepts such as the \u201cuseful life\u201d of data<\/strong>, that is, how long certain information must remain confidential. At the same time, the organization begins to monitor announcements from NIST<\/strong> and the roadmaps of its key suppliers\u2014such as cloud providers, operating system manufacturers, or firewall manufacturers\u2014to understand the direction in which the market is moving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Level 2 \u201cdefined\u201d (inventory and planning)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Once simple awareness has been overcome, a more operational phase begins. The organization starts to map what already exists<\/strong> and plan<\/strong> the following steps. This involves starting a cryptographic inventory<\/strong>, aimed at identifying where vulnerable algorithms such as RSA or ECC are used, both in applications and in internal systems and libraries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Furthermore, critical systems<\/strong> and data at higher risk<\/strong> are identified, i.e., those that require protection for a long period of time. Based on this analysis, a roadmap for migration<\/strong> to post-quantum solutions is defined, even if only in preliminary form. At the same time, crypto-agility<\/strong>\u2014the ability to easily replace one cryptographic algorithm with another\u2014becomes a fundamental feature in new contracts<\/strong> and in the required specifications for suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Level 3 \u201cmanaged\u201d (test and integration)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

        Finally, in the \u201cManaged\u201d phase, the organization moves on to the active testing <\/strong>of PQC technologies. In controlled environments, post-quantum algorithms\u2014such as ML-KEM<\/strong>\u2014are tested to assess their performance impact in terms of latency, CPU usage, and bandwidth on critical applications. Hybrid-mode interoperability<\/strong> is also verified, combining classical and post-quantum algorithms in popular protocols such as TLS 1.3,<\/strong> while DevSecOps<\/strong> pipelines begin to include automated testing for new cryptographic libraries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        At which level is your organization today?<\/strong> And above all, what do you think are the main obstacles<\/strong> slowing down the path to post-quantum security? Is it a question of technology<\/strong>, budget<\/strong>, or legacy complexity<\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        For further information<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Raffaele Sarno<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Head Pre-Sale Manager, NEVERHACK Security Operation Department, Italy<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        In previous articles, we explored AI as a tactical weapon that is already reshaping attacks and Zero Trust as a strategic model for modern defence. Now, let’s address a threat that does not aim to infiltrate our infrastructure, but to invalidate the cryptographic foundations on which it is built. Analysts such as Gartner estimate that standard asymmetric encryption may … Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":2053,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[576,28,574,578],"class_list":["post-2052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trends","tag-cryptography","tag-high-risk","tag-post-quantum","tag-risk"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPost-Quantum chryptography (PQC): current Risk - Neverhack<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is your encryption ready for the quantum threat? 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